[2-12]Blame it on El Niño!

Washington, D.C. is enduring its second major snowstorm in less than a week and the third this winter season. Experts say the oceanic disturbance known as El Niño is to blame for severe weather here and around the world in recent months.

Every three to seven years or so, heat buildup in the tropical Pacific Ocean reaches a critical point, says Kevin Trenberth at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research.

"In some sense," Trenberth says, "the ocean says, 'I can't stand it anymore. I'm going to have an El Niño.'"

And when it does, look out.

The warmer Pacific Ocean pours heat and moisture into the atmosphere, disturbing the usual airflow patterns and messing up weather around the world. Although the 1997-98 El Niño event was stronger, Trenberth says this current one is the strongest in a decade.

"It's still probably not in the 'major' category," he says, "but it's having some substantial influences around the world."




Storms, droughts linked

Southeast Asia felt El Niño's influence during last year's typhoon season. A series of devastating storms hit the region, killing thousands and causing massive flooding and landslides. On the other hand, dry conditions are predicted for Indonesia, raising the risk of forest fires. And farther west, late monsoon rains caused crop failures in parts of India. That has helped drive up food prices.

Although it's harder to say to what degree El Niño is to blame for India's late monsoon, Trenberth says, "It certainly doesn't help. Let me put it that way."

Some good news

But El Niño isn't all bad news. Drought-stricken California is getting some much-needed rain. And parts of Africa could benefit as well.

"The drought that's currently going on in Kenya could be alleviated by the conditions that develop in the later stages," Trenberth says. El Niño conditions are expected to continue for at least the next couple months. After that, the cycle goes into transition mode. "That's where the predictability, so to speak, is actually probably less than at any other time."

As another snowstorm blankets Washington, D.C., the prospect of more unpredictable weather is hardly a comforting thought.

华盛顿特区是持久的，在不到一个星期，第三这个冬天的第二大暴雪。专家说，海洋干扰厄尔尼诺知道的是归咎于恶劣天气在最近几个月在这里和世界各地。

每3至7年左右，在热带太平洋的热量不断积聚达到一个临界点，凯文说，在美国国家大气研究中心Trenberth。

“从某种意义上说，”Trenberth说，“海洋说，'我不能忍受了。我将有一个厄尔尼诺现象。”

当它好看的。

温暖的太平洋大气倒入热量和水分，扰乱正常空气流动模式和搞乱世界各地的天气。虽然1997-98年厄尔尼诺事件是强大，Trenberth目前一说，这是10年最强的。

“它仍然可能是在'大'类别没有，”他说，“但它拥有世界各地的一些实质性的影响。”

风暴，干旱链接

东南亚认为在去年的台风季节厄尔尼诺现象的影响。阿一系列灾难性风暴袭击该地区，造成数千，造成巨大的洪水和泥石流灾害。另一方面，干燥天气，预计印尼，提高森林火灾的风险。远西部地区，季风降雨造成后期在印度部分地区作物歉收。这有助于食品价格上涨的驱动器。

虽然它很难说到什么程度厄尔尼诺现象归咎于印度季风后期，Trenberth说：“这当然不是帮助。让我这样说的。”

一些好消息

但是，厄尔尼诺现象是不是所有的坏消息。遭受旱灾的加州是得到一些急需的降雨。和非洲部分地区也可以受益。

“干旱是对目前在肯尼亚可由缓解的条件是，在后来的发展阶段之后，”Trenberth说。厄尔尼诺条件，预计将持续至少在未来几个月内。在此之后，周期现为过渡模式。 “这就是可预测性，可以这么说，实际上，大概不到任何时候。”

正如另一位雪灾毛毯，华盛顿特区，更不可预测的天气前景并不舒服的。